ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.76 – 94.79

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.7 ±9.8

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 51.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 53.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 165.97Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.4 ±12.2

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 47.11Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 0Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 47.68Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1334, 8089, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 8089, 610

Auto

44.5 17%

Teleop

170.4 64%

Endgame

52.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 8764, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 8764, 6854

Auto

23.9 26%

Teleop

32.7 35%

Endgame

36.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score271.8pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177
Score range: 58–309
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 206.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.7Season APEX171.4

44.5Auto23.9

170.4Teleop32.7

52.9Endgame36.7

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	25
teleop	205	17
endgame	54	18
foul	20	20
total	332	80

Result

Final score

332 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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