ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.41 – 53.53

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 120.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.3 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 101.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 88.82Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 285.8Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.2 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 29.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 12.73Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 11.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 2609, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 2609, 4946

Auto

81.1 17%

Teleop

279.7 60%

Endgame

107.9 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2386, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2386, 9263

Auto

15.1 30%

Teleop

27.2 54%

Endgame

7.7 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score476.4pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 422.9
Score range: 17–513
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 205.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.3Season APEX309.2

81.1Auto15.1

279.7Teleop27.2

107.9Endgame7.7

30Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	25
teleop	188	61
endgame	62	59
foul	5	10
total	337	155

Result

Final score

337 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 120.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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