ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.26 – 245.95

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.3 ±11.2

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 37.96Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -3.77Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 30.07Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.1 ±10.4

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 80.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 16.55Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 149.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 4940, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 4940, 4308

Auto

1.5 3%

Teleop

30.7 56%

Endgame

22.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5409, 5408, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

246 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 5408, 9098

Auto

57.8 25%

Teleop

130.8 56%

Endgame

43.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.3pts

Blue projected score246pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -181.7
Score range: 27–283
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 207.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.3Season APEX452.1

1.5Auto57.8

30.7Teleop130.8

22.3Endgame43.9

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	69
teleop	5	124
endgame	0	33
foul	10	0
total	33	226

Result

Final score

33 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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