ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.01 – 39.03

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

368 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 78 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±10.5

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 44.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 148.27Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 30.4Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.1 ±12.8

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -14.7Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 10.41Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 43.32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11227, 610, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

223 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11227, 610, 6854

Auto

34.3 17%

Teleop

120.7 59%

Endgame

49.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 6725, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 6725, 4617

Auto

17.0 54%

Teleop

8.4 27%

Endgame

5.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223pts

Blue projected score39pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 184
Score range: 2–260
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 207.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.2Season APEX167.1

34.3Auto17

120.7Teleop8.4

49.6Endgame5.9

11Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	7
teleop	230	5
endgame	81	1
foul	0	15
total	368	28

Result

Final score

368 – 28

Prediction correct · off by 78 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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