ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.36 – 367.24

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.3 ±11

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.45Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 93.32Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 9.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.6 ±9.9

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 31.2Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 206.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 129.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5870, 2702, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 2702, 6975

Auto

26.3 19%

Teleop

63.2 46%

Endgame

47.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5912, 2200, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 2200, 3683

Auto

111.5 32%

Teleop

176.1 50%

Endgame

64.3 18%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.4pts

Blue projected score367.2pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.9
Score range: 100–404
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 206.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.3Season APEX522.6

26.3Auto111.5

63.2Teleop176.1

47.1Endgame64.3

52Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	72
teleop	110	160
endgame	32	32
foul	5	5
total	208	269

Result

Final score

208 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 84.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.