ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.69 – 124.21

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 102.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.8 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 27.65Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 143.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 98.44Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -33.76Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 131.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 26.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 610, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 610, 4976

Auto

37.4 15%

Teleop

185.1 72%

Endgame

33.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 9098, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 9098, 11227

Auto

33.5 31%

Teleop

43.9 41%

Endgame

30.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.7pts

Blue projected score124.2pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.5
Score range: 87–307
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 205.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.8Season APEX357.5

37.4Auto33.5

185.1Teleop43.9

33.8Endgame30.7

4Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	27
teleop	223	139
endgame	53	63
foul	0	45
total	325	274

Result

Final score

325 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 102.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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