ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.02 – 107.95

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437 ±10.5

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 19.45Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 259.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 6.82Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.1 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 37.43Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 18.1Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 52.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6854, 4946, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

286 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 4946, 4308

Auto

51.5 18%

Teleop

164.0 59%

Endgame

62.9 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 5408, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 5408, 3756

Auto

37.1 40%

Teleop

41.7 45%

Endgame

13.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 178.1
Score range: 67–327
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 225.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437Season APEX228.1

51.5Auto37.1

164Teleop41.7

62.9Endgame13.9

21Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	99	50
endgame	112	27
foul	0	0
total	224	91

Result

Final score

224 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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