ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.6 – 243.95

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.9 ±10.5

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 26.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 49.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 21.87Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.7 ±12.4

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 268.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX -19.23Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -5.12Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 772, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5408, 772, 6975

Auto

20.6 21%

Teleop

72.3 75%

Endgame

4.0 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 8764, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

244 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 8764, 6725

Auto

42.5 18%

Teleop

132.9 56%

Endgame

62.6 26%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.6pts

Blue projected score244pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.3
Score range: 61–281
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 204.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.9Season APEX435.7

20.6Auto42.5

72.3Teleop132.9

4Endgame62.6

91Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	72
teleop	17	241
endgame	12	61
foul	10	15
total	51	389

Result

Final score

51 – 389

Prediction correct · off by 95.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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