ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

454.13 – 168.66

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

615 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 122.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±10.7

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 190.17Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 30.73Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 233.23Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±10.4

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 65.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 52.54Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 50.8Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 4617, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 4617, 4678

Auto

115.8 27%

Teleop

244.2 56%

Endgame

76.1 17%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 5870, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 5870, 4308

Auto

17.0 10%

Teleop

116.1 68%

Endgame

38.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score454.1pts

Blue projected score168.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 285.5
Score range: 133–490
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 200.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

638.3Season APEX219.4

115.8Auto17

244.2Teleop116.1

76.1Endgame38.8

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	132	25
teleop	374	27
endgame	109	32
foul	0	0
total	615	84

Result

Final score

615 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 122.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.