ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.31 – 159.38

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.9 ±12.2

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 101.27Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 41.65Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 44.39Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.1 ±11.2

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 5.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 11.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 142.37Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 6854, 7058

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4917, 6854, 7058

Auto

23.0 13%

Teleop

110.6 61%

Endgame

49.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4940, 9263, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 9263, 3683

Auto

35.5 24%

Teleop

87.1 59%

Endgame

25.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.3pts

Blue projected score159.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.9
Score range: 122–224
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 203.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.9Season APEX359.1

23Auto35.5

110.6Teleop87.1

49.2Endgame25.7

4Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	42	35
endgame	15	31
foul	5	0
total	99	83

Result

Final score

99 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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