ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.74 – 121.08

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.8 ±10.4

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 24.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 13.94Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 128.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.2 ±11

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 26.07Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 102.07Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX -7.06Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 6875, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 6875, 9098

Auto

37.1 25%

Teleop

84.1 58%

Endgame

24.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6975, 4976, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6975, 4976, 2386

Auto

23.9 19%

Teleop

85.1 68%

Endgame

15.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.7pts

Blue projected score121.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 84–205
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 205.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.8Season APEX323.2

37.1Auto23.9

84.1Teleop85.1

24.8Endgame15.5

2Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	17
teleop	114	65
endgame	42	27
foul	0	0
total	185	109

Result

Final score

185 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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