ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.66 – 54.34

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 106.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.1 ±11.2

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 187.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -7.48Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 62.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±12.2

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -17.2Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 56.87Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 14.67Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 6725, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 6725, 1334

Auto

69.6 29%

Teleop

140.9 60%

Endgame

25.7 11%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4940, 2609, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 2609, 6854

Auto

12.0 22%

Teleop

18.5 34%

Endgame

24.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.7pts

Blue projected score54.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 188.3
Score range: 17–280
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 207.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.1Season APEX198.6

69.6Auto12

140.9Teleop18.5

25.7Endgame24.7

56Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	36
teleop	188	117
endgame	13	57
foul	15	25
total	275	235

Result

Final score

275 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 106.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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