ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.49 – 77.75

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±12.8

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 44.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX -20.71Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 17.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.7 ±12.2

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 24.95Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 21.5Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 31.3Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7058, 8764, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 8764, 9263

Auto

11.3 27%

Teleop

9.1 22%

Endgame

20.8 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5912, 11227, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 11227, 4617

Auto

32.3 48%

Teleop

20.7 31%

Endgame

14.5 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.5pts

Blue projected score77.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.3
Score range: 5–114
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 201.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX242.7

11.3Auto32.3

9.1Teleop20.7

20.8Endgame14.5

67Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	42
teleop	20	22
endgame	14	7
foul	0	15
total	44	86

Result

Final score

44 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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