ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.99 – 178.11

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 140.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.7 ±11.2

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 140.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 64.87Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -46.91Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±10.4

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 90.6Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 11.78Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 75.73Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 4976, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 4976, 4940

Auto

52.5 38%

Teleop

86.4 62%

Endgame

1.1 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8089, 2386, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8089, 2386, 5870

Auto

33.7 20%

Teleop

85.6 50%

Endgame

52.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.1
Score range: 122–214
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 199.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.7Season APEX324.7

52.5Auto33.7

86.4Teleop85.6

1.1Endgame52.4

30Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	47
teleop	262	42
endgame	39	32
foul	0	0
total	381	121

Result

Final score

381 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 140.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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