ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

319.7 – 370.44

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

397 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.7 ±9.8

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 198.67Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 23.69Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 97.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.8 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 103.4Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 140.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 126.07Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4678, 6875, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4678, 6875, 2702

Auto

61.9 20%

Teleop

181.4 57%

Endgame

72.6 23%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 9098, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 9098, 3683

Auto

87.2 26%

Teleop

187.8 55%

Endgame

65.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score319.7pts

Blue projected score370.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.7
Score range: 285–405
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 799 vs event baseline 192.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.7Season APEX604.8

61.9Auto87.2

181.4Teleop187.8

72.6Endgame65

118Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	54
teleop	212	263
endgame	126	75
foul	5	10
total	397	402

Result

Final score

397 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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