ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.16 – 103.73

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±9.8

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 106.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 188.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 8.73Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±11.7

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 79.82Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 14.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 9.03Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 2200, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 2200, 10514

Auto

75.4 26%

Teleop

160.5 56%

Endgame

50.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4917, 6875, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4917, 6875, 6725

Auto

23.3 24%

Teleop

49.9 51%

Endgame

24.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score304.2pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.4
Score range: 63–345
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 225.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586Season APEX222.5

75.4Auto23.3

160.5Teleop49.9

50.8Endgame24.6

41Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	28
teleop	67	63
endgame	55	27
foul	0	5
total	198	123

Result

Final score

198 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.