ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.25 – 69.34

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±11

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -0.65Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 0.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 39.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 23.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 18.98Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 27.27Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 6854, 3756

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 6854, 3756

Auto

19.1 93%

Teleop

-43.3 0%

Endgame

44.8 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 5408, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 5408, 5912

Auto

23.2 33%

Teleop

47.7 68%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.3pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: 3–105
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 197.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.7Season APEX253.4

19.1Auto23.2

-43.3Teleop47.7

44.8Endgame-0.3

25Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	8	23
endgame	0	13
foul	5	0
total	30	68

Result

Final score

30 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 5.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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