ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.11 – 60.09

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.2 ±12.2

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -24.65Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 45.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 38.39Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±12.8

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 31.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 29.15Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX -0.2Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6725, 2609, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6725, 2609, 6975

Auto

21.9 36%

Teleop

40.4 67%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4617, 4308, 8764

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 4308, 8764

Auto

-1.5 0%

Teleop

15.3 25%

Endgame

47.6 78%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.1pts

Blue projected score60.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 23–96
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 200.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.2Season APEX225.6

21.9Auto-1.5

40.4Teleop15.3

-1.7Endgame47.6

92Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	7
teleop	81	25
endgame	62	12
foul	0	0
total	181	44

Result

Final score

181 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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