ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

187.82 – 421.06

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.7 ±11.2

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 62.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 94.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 30.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.5 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 260.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 98.16Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 62.82Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7058, 772, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 772, 11227

Auto

33.4 18%

Teleop

119.2 66%

Endgame

28.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4946, 4917, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 4917, 1334

Auto

82.0 19%

Teleop

261.3 62%

Endgame

79.8 19%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.8pts

Blue projected score421.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.2
Score range: 152–457
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 198.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.7Season APEX530.5

33.4Auto82

119.2Teleop261.3

28.4Endgame79.8

3Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	53	328
endgame	22	54
foul	5	0
total	94	408

Result

Final score

94 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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