ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.54 – 139.09

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 159.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 511.2 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 93.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 35.84Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 125.51Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.7 ±9.8

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -28.04Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 82.67Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 84.46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9098, 5870, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 5870, 2200

Auto

85.4 37%

Teleop

109.5 48%

Endgame

33.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 610, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 610, 5409

Auto

40.4 31%

Teleop

54.4 41%

Endgame

37.2 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score139.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.5
Score range: 104–290
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 713 vs event baseline 192.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

511.2Season APEX444.7

85.4Auto40.4

109.5Teleop54.4

33.9Endgame37.2

33Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	47
teleop	248	124
endgame	72	69
foul	25	25
total	448	265

Result

Final score

448 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 159.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.