ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.89 – 286.54

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 118.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.2 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 49.12Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 79.7Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 16.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425 ±11.7

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 240.67Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 68.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -22.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4976, 2702, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4976, 2702, 9263

Auto

19.7 14%

Teleop

102.7 72%

Endgame

20.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4678, 6975, 4940

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4678, 6975, 4940

Auto

67.2 23%

Teleop

177.3 61%

Endgame

46.3 16%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.9pts

Blue projected score286.5pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.7
Score range: 110–322
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 191.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.2Season APEX425

19.7Auto67.2

102.7Teleop177.3

20Endgame46.3

100Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	193	69
endgame	30	58
foul	0	20
total	256	160

Result

Final score

256 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 118.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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