ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.55 – 386.53

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.8 ±11

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX -0.38Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 49.33Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 76.6Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±10.7

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 21.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 256.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 108.55Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2386, 5912, 1334

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 5912, 1334

Auto

38.4 30%

Teleop

59.4 46%

Endgame

30.1 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4617, 4946, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 4946, 772

Auto

67.7 18%

Teleop

235.2 62%

Endgame

77.9 20%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score386.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -261
Score range: 92–421
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.8Season APEX520.9

38.4Auto67.7

59.4Teleop235.2

30.1Endgame77.9

28Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	76
teleop	8	298
endgame	31	50
foul	0	5
total	68	429

Result

Final score

68 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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