ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.12 – 185.21

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 103 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±9.8

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 23.67Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 83.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 97.39Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.9 ±11.7

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 67.4Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 107.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 9.98Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 8089, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 8089, 3683

Auto

42.4 22%

Teleop

84.1 44%

Endgame

66.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 5409, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11227, 5409, 6725

Auto

52.3 29%

Teleop

119.6 65%

Endgame

11.4 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.1pts

Blue projected score185.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 150–239
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 195.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.3Season APEX311.9

42.4Auto52.3

84.1Teleop119.6

66.3Endgame11.4

65Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	11
teleop	158	2
endgame	68	3
foul	5	15
total	256	31

Result

Final score

256 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 103 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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