ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.26 – 125.9

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.7 ±9.8

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX -26.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 213.54Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 76.47Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.8 ±11.6

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 69.72Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 36.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 20.11Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2386, 4678, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 4678, 4917

Auto

59.2 23%

Teleop

144.3 56%

Endgame

53.2 21%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6975, 9263, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6975, 9263, 6854

Auto

10.1 8%

Teleop

82.4 68%

Endgame

28.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.3pts

Blue projected score125.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.4
Score range: 91–298
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 194.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.7Season APEX198.8

59.2Auto10.1

144.3Teleop82.4

53.2Endgame28.9

110Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	8
teleop	200	14
endgame	88	18
foul	0	0
total	372	40

Result

Final score

372 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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