ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.76 – 225.48

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±9.8

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 16.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 171.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 72.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.2 ±9.8

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 46.18Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 105.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 73.57Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9263, 610, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 610, 2609

Auto

47.6 19%

Teleop

139.9 55%

Endgame

66.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 5409, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 5409, 4976

Auto

52.4 23%

Teleop

152.5 68%

Endgame

20.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score260.8pts

Blue projected score225.5pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.3
Score range: 184–302
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 225.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.6Season APEX431.2

47.6Auto52.4

139.9Teleop152.5

66.1Endgame20.4

14Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	42
teleop	16	151
endgame	25	43
foul	20	0
total	80	236

Result

Final score

80 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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