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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.31 – 154.5

86%14%
Actual result
Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 293

Prediction missed · off by 97.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±11
4917Sir Lancerbot
C
Season APEX 120Event APEX 82.82Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
5912Copper Hawks
D
Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 64.32Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
9098FireHawks
B
Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 151.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.6 ±9.8
3756RamFerno
C
Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 18.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
2200BCR Blackout
A
Season APEX 262Event APEX 97.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
8089Rockway Robotics
B
Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 39.37Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 5912, 9098
85
/ 100 compat
Projected
298.3 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 4917, 5912, 9098
Auto
44.2 15%
Teleop
176.4 59%
Endgame
78.2 26%
Strengths
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3756, 2200, 8089
52
/ 100 compat
Projected
154.5 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 3756, 2200, 8089
Auto
57.4 40%
Teleop
57.3 40%
Endgame
28.8 20%
Strengths
  • · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.97
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score298.3pts
Blue projected score154.5pts
Red win probability86%
Event bonus sample156alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
143.8
Score range
121–332
Upset likelihood
14%
Data cutoff
2026-08-16
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 191.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.9Season APEX485.6
44.2Auto57.4
176.4Teleop57.3
78.2Endgame28.8
113Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto7486
teleop92131
endgame4631
foul3045
total242293

Result

Final score

242 – 293

Prediction missed · off by 97.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

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