ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.57 – 54.64

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.9 ±10.4

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 5.54Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX -27Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 113.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.6 ±12.8

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 22.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 28.33Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 3.91Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 9263, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 9263, 5409

Auto

5.9 6%

Teleop

41.1 43%

Endgame

47.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4617, 4940, 6875

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4617, 4940, 6875

Auto

19.0 47%

Teleop

-0.7 0%

Endgame

21.8 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.6pts

Blue projected score54.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 20–127
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 194.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.9Season APEX201.6

5.9Auto19

41.1Teleop-0.7

47.9Endgame21.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	10
teleop	175	25
endgame	30	11
foul	0	5
total	243	51

Result

Final score

243 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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