ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.1 – 110.94

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 116 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.6 ±9.8

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 17.98Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 36.38Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 151.74Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462 ±11.7

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX -14.36Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 73.93Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 51.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5870, 11227, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 11227, 4946

Auto

30.2 15%

Teleop

119.6 60%

Endgame

50.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8764, 4917, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 4917, 2702

Auto

15.1 14%

Teleop

46.1 42%

Endgame

48.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.1pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.2
Score range: 77–240
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.6Season APEX462

30.2Auto15.1

119.6Teleop46.1

50.1Endgame48.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	13
teleop	235	76
endgame	73	63
foul	15	0
total	397	152

Result

Final score

397 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 116 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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