ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.22 – 108.83

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.3 ±11

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 22.63Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 46.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 16.29Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.2 ±11.1

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 10.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 21.82Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 76.43Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 6854, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5408, 6854, 2386

Auto

19.5 20%

Teleop

46.1 48%

Endgame

29.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 5912, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 5912, 6975

Auto

35.0 39%

Teleop

47.2 52%

Endgame

8.2 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score108.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.6
Score range: 52–142
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.3Season APEX339.2

19.5Auto35

46.1Teleop47.2

29.6Endgame8.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	43
teleop	14	166
endgame	27	53
foul	5	0
total	60	262

Result

Final score

60 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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