ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.53 – 220.21

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.3 ±12.2

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 56.93Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -2.53Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 11.13Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.7 ±10.5

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 26.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 122.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 70.97Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8089, 4940, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8089, 4940, 5912

Auto

27.2 47%

Teleop

17.1 29%

Endgame

13.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6975, 3683, 11227

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6975, 3683, 11227

Auto

49.1 24%

Teleop

104.3 51%

Endgame

51.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.5pts

Blue projected score220.2pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.7
Score range: 25–261
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 225.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.3Season APEX363.7

27.2Auto49.1

17.1Teleop104.3

13.7Endgame51.7

43Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	70
teleop	27	127
endgame	42	27
foul	0	15
total	96	239

Result

Final score

96 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.