ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.85 – 384.69

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 6.13Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 224.4Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 259.32Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 17.79Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 174.86Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 192.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

95.9 20%

Teleop

274.6 57%

Endgame

110.2 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 610, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 610, 2200

Auto

82.2 23%

Teleop

214.0 59%

Endgame

68.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score489.9pts

Blue projected score384.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.2
Score range: 345–530
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 223.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX544.6

95.9Auto82.2

274.6Teleop214

110.2Endgame68.3

6Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	55
teleop	262	167
endgame	89	56
foul	40	5
total	504	283

Result

Final score

504 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Match videos

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