ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.69 – 389.37

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

465 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 6.97Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 225.31Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 260.41Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 176.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 19.22Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 193.73Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

96.3 20%

Teleop

274.6 57%

Endgame

113.4 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

83.3 23%

Teleop

215.6 59%

Endgame

69.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score492.7pts

Blue projected score389.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.3
Score range: 349–533
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 806 vs event baseline 220.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX544.6

96.3Auto83.3

274.6Teleop215.6

113.4Endgame69.6

3Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	72
teleop	274	199
endgame	84	55
foul	15	15
total	465	341

Result

Final score

465 – 341

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Match videos

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