ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

521.41 – 396.77

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

288 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 156.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 15.91Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 234.95Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 270.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 178.56Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 21.23Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 196.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

521.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

97.3 19%

Teleop

293.8 57%

Endgame

122.9 24%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

83.4 22%

Teleop

222.0 59%

Endgame

70.4 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score521.4pts

Blue projected score396.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.6
Score range: 357–561
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 219.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX544.6

97.3Auto83.4

293.8Teleop222

122.9Endgame70.4

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	82
teleop	137	156
endgame	47	59
foul	15	20
total	288	317

Result

Final score

288 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 156.6 pts

Match videos

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