Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.63 – 87.51

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.3 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 83.02Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 23.92Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 62.69Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±10.4

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 28.12Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 44.51Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 14.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4069, 854, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 854, 1360

Auto

24.8 15%

Teleop

92.5 58%

Endgame

43.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10554, 9262, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10554, 9262, 919

Auto

13.6 16%

Teleop

43.5 52%

Endgame

25.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.6pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.1
Score range: 59–199
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.3Season APEX295.4

24.8Auto13.6

92.5Teleop43.5

43.2Endgame25.9

7Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	20
teleop	116	38
endgame	40	25
foul	5	5
total	187	88

Result

Final score

187 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Match videos

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