Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.63 – 224.84

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±10.4

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 1.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 12.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 42.11Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 87.59Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 11.75Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 125.5Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 5031, 1310

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 5031, 1310

Auto

33.5 57%

Teleop

7.8 13%

Endgame

17.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 9562, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 9562, 4039

Auto

43.0 19%

Teleop

130.9 58%

Endgame

50.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.6pts

Blue projected score224.8pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.2
Score range: 27–254
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 161.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.9Season APEX587.4

33.5Auto43

7.8Teleop130.9

17.3Endgame50.8

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	54
teleop	46	166
endgame	38	31
foul	0	5
total	113	256

Result

Final score

113 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Match videos

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