Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
249.79 – 55.52
92%8%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
389 – 34
Prediction correct · off by 80.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±9.8
Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 9.05Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 101.12Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 139.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.6 ±11
Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 4.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 21Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 30.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 771, 3161, 7520
79
/ 100 compatProjected
249.8 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 771, 3161, 7520
Auto
42.0 17%
Teleop
149.9 61%
Endgame
52.7 22%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2634, 10167, 6397
34
/ 100 compatProjected
55.5 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 2634, 10167, 6397
Auto
8.0 16%
Teleop
23.6 48%
Endgame
17.2 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score249.8pts
Blue projected score55.5pts
Red win probability92%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 194.3
- Score range
- 27–279
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
470.4Season APEX204.6
42Auto8
149.9Teleop23.6
52.7Endgame17.2
0Consistency6
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 18 |
| teleop | 265 | 4 |
| endgame | 89 | 7 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 389 | 34 |
Result
Final score
389 – 34
Prediction correct · off by 80.4 pts
Match videos
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