Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.42 – 175.42

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 95.79Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 17.75Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 132.88Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.3 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 83.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 26.9Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 64.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11270, 9562, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 9562, 4039

Auto

41.8 17%

Teleop

145.0 59%

Endgame

59.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 854, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 854, 1360

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

98.9 59%

Endgame

44.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.4pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71
Score range: 146–275
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.4Season APEX437.3

41.8Auto23.5

145Teleop98.9

59.2Endgame44.9

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	42
teleop	96	83
endgame	24	68
foul	0	25
total	171	218

Result

Final score

171 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 59 pts

Match videos

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