Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.2 – 172.37

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±9.8

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 12.02Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 103.73Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 141.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.3 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 83.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24.65Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 63.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 3161, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 3161, 7520

Auto

51.2 21%

Teleop

146.2 59%

Endgame

48.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 854, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 854, 1360

Auto

24.3 15%

Teleop

96.6 59%

Endgame

43.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score257.2pts

Blue projected score172.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.8
Score range: 142–287
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX437.3

51.2Auto24.3

146.2Teleop96.6

48.6Endgame43.5

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	22
teleop	95	117
endgame	20	51
foul	0	5
total	208	195

Result

Final score

208 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Match videos

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