Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.31 – 230.76

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 470.4 ±9.8

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 13.9Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 105.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 143.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±9.8

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 89.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 13Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4039MakeShift Robotics

Season APEX 199.5Event APEX 128.02Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 3161, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 3161, 7520

Auto

47.3 18%

Teleop

158.4 61%

Endgame

53.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 9562, 4039

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 9562, 4039

Auto

43.6 19%

Teleop

138.2 60%

Endgame

48.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.3pts

Blue projected score230.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 202–291
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 162.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

470.4Season APEX587.4

47.3Auto43.6

158.4Teleop138.2

53.4Endgame48.3

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	48
teleop	73	101
endgame	16	5
foul	60	0
total	226	154

Result

Final score

226 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Match videos

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