Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.55 – 112.53

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 19 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±11

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 87.13Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 4.66Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -8.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 464.3 ±9.8

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -8.24Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 87.13Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 33.64Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1360, 3560, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1360, 3560, 9659

Auto

28.4 33%

Teleop

31.5 37%

Endgame

25.7 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10167, 11270, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10167, 11270, 10554

Auto

19.8 17%

Teleop

60.0 52%

Endgame

36.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.6pts

Blue projected score112.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 59–138
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 136.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.8Season APEX464.3

28.4Auto19.8

31.5Teleop60

25.7Endgame36.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	44	30
endgame	18	44
foul	10	0
total	95	86

Result

Final score

95 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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