Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.96 – 124.01

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.3 ±11.2

1310Runnymede Robotics

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 26.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 78Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 26.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±11.7

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 45.82Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 81.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX -3.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1310, 7558, 8850

/ 100 compat

Projected

131 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1310, 7558, 8850

Auto

17.2 13%

Teleop

73.2 55%

Endgame

42.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 854, 4069, 4015

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 4069, 4015

Auto

8.0 6%

Teleop

70.3 56%

Endgame

47.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131pts

Blue projected score124pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7
Score range: 98–157
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.3Season APEX268.8

17.2Auto8

73.2Teleop70.3

42.9Endgame47.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	2
teleop	34	47
endgame	20	7
foul	10	0
total	71	56

Result

Final score

71 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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