Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.56 – 95.52

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.4 ±10.5

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 117.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 12.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 16.67Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.5 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 78.73Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -10Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10554Team VIPER

Season APEX 138.6Event APEX 26.79Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9785, 3560, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9785, 3560, 9562

Auto

20.0 14%

Teleop

89.9 62%

Endgame

35.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4069, 9659, 10554

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 9659, 10554

Auto

11.3 12%

Teleop

51.1 55%

Endgame

31.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.6pts

Blue projected score95.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 68–175
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.4Season APEX391.5

20Auto11.3

89.9Teleop51.1

35.4Endgame31.1

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	26
teleop	94	84
endgame	34	63
foul	0	20
total	179	193

Result

Final score

179 – 193

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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