Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

280.42 – 290.46

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.8 ±11

2935NACI Robotics

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 148.95Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 99.49Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 31.98Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 148.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 36.71Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 105.19Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2935, 3161, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2935, 3161, 6397

Auto

37.1 14%

Teleop

173.6 64%

Endgame

60.1 22%

Strengths

· 2935 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7520, 854, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7520, 854, 11270

Auto

40.8 14%

Teleop

179.7 63%

Endgame

63.8 22%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.4pts

Blue projected score290.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 252–318
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.8Season APEX561.4

37.1Auto40.8

173.6Teleop179.7

60.1Endgame63.8

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	27
teleop	180	122
endgame	63	48
foul	30	10
total	308	207

Result

Final score

308 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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