Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.09 – 20.08

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.1 ±11.7

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -16.16Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 9.8Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 73.45Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±10.4

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 2.8Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 8.36Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 8.92Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 8850, 4069

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 8850, 4069

Auto

12.5 19%

Teleop

41.7 63%

Endgame

12.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2634, 10167, 771

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2634, 10167, 771

Auto

9.5 43%

Teleop

-3.3 0%

Endgame

15.8 72%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.1pts

Blue projected score20.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: -8–95
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 155.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.1Season APEX191.3

12.5Auto9.5

41.7Teleop-3.3

12.4Endgame15.8

1Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	11
teleop	58	14
endgame	37	22
foul	15	5
total	144	52

Result

Final score

144 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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