Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.99 – 187.78

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686.6 ±9.3

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 9.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 114.26Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 143.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±10.5

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 46.77Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 109.31Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 31.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5031, 9785, 7520

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5031, 9785, 7520

Auto

42.2 16%

Teleop

162.2 61%

Endgame

60.0 23%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9262, 7558, 6397

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9262, 7558, 6397

Auto

15.2 8%

Teleop

95.2 51%

Endgame

75.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score267pts

Blue projected score187.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.2
Score range: 160–295
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 153.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686.6Season APEX494.7

42.2Auto15.2

162.2Teleop95.2

60Endgame75.3

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	22
teleop	198	94
endgame	63	51
foul	0	45
total	325	212

Result

Final score

325 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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