Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.16 – 187.08

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.8 ±10.4

771SWAT

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 12.88Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 42.31Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 23.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.3 ±10.7

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 171.63Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 2.6Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 12.85Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 771, 854, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 771, 854, 919

Auto

11.5 15%

Teleop

49.0 66%

Endgame

14.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 9782, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 9782, 3560

Auto

53.6 30%

Teleop

104.3 59%

Endgame

20.3 11%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score187.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.9
Score range: 51–215
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.8Season APEX436.3

11.5Auto53.6

49Teleop104.3

14Endgame20.3

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	52
teleop	14	109
endgame	9	45
foul	0	0
total	33	206

Result

Final score

33 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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