Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.28 – 104.66

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.6 ±10.4

4069Lo-Ellen Robotics

Season APEX 170.9Event APEX 56.3Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5031Full Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX -8.81Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 7.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 398.3 ±11.2

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 99.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8850Ed Bears

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX -13.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 19.19Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4069, 5031, 2634

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4069, 5031, 2634

Auto

13.1 22%

Teleop

28.0 47%

Endgame

18.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11270, 8850, 9575

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11270, 8850, 9575

Auto

21.0 21%

Teleop

56.3 57%

Endgame

22.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score104.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.4
Score range: 27–133
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.6Season APEX398.3

13.1Auto21

28Teleop56.3

18.2Endgame22.3

8Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	24
teleop	99	129
endgame	35	46
foul	0	10
total	161	209

Result

Final score

161 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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