Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.24 – 22.62

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.3 ±9.8

854Iron Bears

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 28.14Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 107.44Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 88.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±11

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 20.82Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9782Wextech Titans

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 7.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX -5.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 854, 3161, 7558

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 854, 3161, 7558

Auto

30.1 14%

Teleop

130.3 60%

Endgame

56.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 919, 9782, 9659

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 919, 9782, 9659

Auto

12.5 58%

Teleop

27.9 100%

Endgame

-19.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.2pts

Blue projected score22.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201.6
Score range: -4–251
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.3Season APEX188.3

30.1Auto12.5

130.3Teleop27.9

56.7Endgame-19

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	3
teleop	245	15
endgame	91	5
foul	5	0
total	388	23

Result

Final score

388 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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