Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.53 – 146.06

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.9 ±11.6

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 6.41Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6397Romero Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 27.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3560MechaWolves

Season APEX 74.9Event APEX 13.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.2 ±11.2

7520Team MineKee

Season APEX 240.1Event APEX 144.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4015Jags

Season APEX 38.4Event APEX 13.21Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6632Northview Robotics

Season APEX 88.7Event APEX -11.68Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10167, 6397, 3560

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10167, 6397, 3560

Auto

9.5 24%

Teleop

4.6 11%

Endgame

26.2 65%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7520, 4015, 6632

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7520, 4015, 6632

Auto

26.2 18%

Teleop

99.9 68%

Endgame

20.2 14%

Strengths

· 7520 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.5pts

Blue projected score146.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.5
Score range: 21–173
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

197.9Season APEX367.2

9.5Auto26.2

4.6Teleop99.9

26.2Endgame20.2

40Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	31
teleop	31	52
endgame	18	14
foul	0	5
total	66	102

Result

Final score

66 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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