Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.52 – 72.35

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±10.4

9659Vanier Vikings

Season APEX 82Event APEX 5.22Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 9.76Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10167Jeunes Sans Frontières

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 19.54Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.2 ±10.4

9575Silver Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 25Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2634The Gryphons

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 3.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9262Humberside Huskies

Season APEX 98.3Event APEX 44.33Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9659, 9562, 10167

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9659, 9562, 10167

Auto

20.5 58%

Teleop

4.7 13%

Endgame

10.3 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9575, 2634, 9262

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9575, 2634, 9262

Auto

20.5 30%

Teleop

34.5 51%

Endgame

12.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.5pts

Blue projected score72.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.8
Score range: 4–103
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 52 vs event baseline 172.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272Season APEX265.2

20.5Auto20.5

4.7Teleop34.5

10.3Endgame12.7

22Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	10	9
endgame	0	10
foul	0	0
total	22	30

Result

Final score

22 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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